The assertion that “Private 5G is dying” is a common industry talking point driven by initial over-hype and real-world deployment challenges. A closer look reveals that P5G is not dying; rather, it is shedding unrealistic use cases and aggressively staking its claim in environments where its superior technical attributes are non-negotiable.
The “Dying” Narrative: Why the Pessimism?
The idea that Private 5G is struggling stems from five main points:
1. The Shadow of Wi-Fi 7
The biggest competitor to Private 5G is the continued evolution of Wi-Fi. The arrival of Wi-Fi 7 (802.11be) offers significantly higher throughput and better management of congested airwaves in many enterprise environments (like offices and casual retail spaces).
- Cost and Familiarity: Wi-Fi is cheaper, simpler to deploy, a known commodity that uses existing infrastructure and internal IT skillsets, making it the preferred default choice for 90% of business connectivity needs.
- Enhanced Capabilities: Wi‑Fi 7 delivers extreme throughput (up to 46 Gbps), ultra‑low latency, and more deterministic performance through features like Multi‑Link Operation and channel puncturing. These advances allow it to support dense device environments, mission‑critical applications, and enterprise‑grade security, all areas traditionally dominated by Private 5G.
2. Deployment Complexity and Skill Gap
Deploying a true Private 5G network is complex. It involves core network software, Radio Access Networks (RAN), spectrum management, and complex system integration.
- Vendor Lock-in: Early solutions often required a massive investment and relied heavily on large telecom equipment vendors, leading to concerns about proprietary solutions and vendor lock-in.
- Talent Shortage: The IT staff at a typical retail or manufacturing facility often lacks the specialized expertise in 3GPP and mobile core technologies required to manage and troubleshoot a private cellular network.
3. Unrealistic Early Expectations
Initial hype suggested P5G would replace Wi-Fi everywhere, from coffee shops to offices to the operating room. This was unrealistic. Private 5G is a premium, specialized solution, not a general-purpose Wi-Fi replacement.
Many enterprises approached P5G with unrealistic expectations, assuming it would instantly deliver flawless coverage, guaranteed ultra‑low latency, and seamless integration across all devices and applications. In reality, P5G deployments require investment in small cell hardware, specialized expertise, and new P5G compatible devices. Performance gains from a P5G system often depend heavily on the holistic deployment approach and use case.
4. Spectrum Uncertainty (CBRS Pressure and Innovation)
In the US, the Citizens Broadband Radio Service (CBRS) spectrum was key to lowering the barrier to entry for private networks. This accessible, shared spectrum has been crucial for the growth of pure-play Private 5G vendors who focus entirely on enterprise deployment. Companies like Celona, and Airspan have built entire business models around offering simplified, dedicated P5G solutions leveraging CBRS. However, there is ongoing concern that large mobile carriers are exerting pressure to acquire or further limit access to this shared spectrum, creating regulatory uncertainty. This perception that the dedicated, affordable spectrum lifeline for enterprises might become less reliable or more costly (the “Carrier Resistance” narrative) stifles long-term investment and slows enterprise adoption, particularly threatening the momentum these specialized P5G companies have created.
5. Corporate Restructuring and Market Signals
Major vendor restructuring signals difficulty in achieving broad market adoption. For example, Nokia’s decision to move its Private 5G business into a “portfolio business” is widely viewed as a clear market signal of potential divestment or sale within the coming year, suggesting a strategic retreat from general enterprise P5G solutions. Furthermore, other major players have similarly scaled back or reorganized: Ericsson divested parts of its IoT business but continues to invest in private 5G, sharpening its focus through Cradlepoint and targeted enterprise partnerships while maintaining strong Mobile Network Operator (MNO) relationships. These shifts highlight that the initially broad “enterprise” market for P5G is not delivering quick wins, pushing vendors to concentrate resources into highly specialized units aimed at the most complex, high‑value industrial scenarios where private 5G can truly differentiate.
The Reality: Where Private 5G is Thriving
Private 5G has a clear, irreplaceable role in industrial and mission-critical environments where current Wi-Fi standards cannot meet performance requirements. This is where the market is now focusing its energy.
| Differentiator | Private 5G Advantage | Wi-Fi Limitation |
| Mobility | True seamless handoff across massive coverage areas (e.g., ports, mines, large campuses). | Requires massive AP deployments; manually defined access points and frequent handoff interruptions. |
| Density & Scale | Handles up to a thousand devices per radio cell without performance degradation (critical for IoT). | Capacity is easily saturated by too many concurrent users or sensors. |
| Quality of Service (QoS) | Allows network slicing to guarantee minimum latency and bandwidth for specific, critical applications (e.g., robotic control). | Best-effort service; performance can fluctuate based on network load. |
| Security | Uses SIM-based authentication (physical or eSIM) and encryption, offering superior authentication and a secure, non-broadcasted signal. | Relies on shared passwords or certificates, making it more vulnerable to interception. |
Key Growth Verticals
P5G is becoming the standard for Operational Technology (OT), not just IT:
- Manufacturing and Industry 4.0: Essential for connecting Automated Guided Vehicles (AGVs), robotics, sensors, and remote quality control where micro-second latency is critical.
- Logistics and Warehousing: Used for automated sorting, drone inspection, and mobile scanners across vast indoor and outdoor areas (like the retail sector needs).
- Ports and Mining: Provides reliable connectivity over extremely wide, harsh environments where laying fiber is impractical.
- Defense and Government: Utilized for secure, isolated networks that require absolute control over data and access.
The Future: P5G is Becoming Simpler
To overcome the complexity issue, the market is shifting toward simplified delivery models:
- As-a-Service Models: Telecom companies (MNOs) and systems integrators are offering P5G as a fully managed service, taking the deployment and maintenance complexity out of the enterprise’s hands.
- CBRS in the U.S.: The availability of shared spectrum (CBRS) has lowered the barrier to entry, allowing companies to build private networks without purchasing expensive licensed spectrum. A heavy U.S. adoption will drive global adoption.
- Hyper-Converged Solutions and Strategic Investment: Vendors are integrating the 5G Core, RAN, and application servers into single, easy-to-manage hardware appliances, simplifying the architecture significantly. Companies like Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) are doubling down on this approach, leveraging their existing edge computing platforms (Aruba and GreenLake) to seamlessly integrate private 5G connectivity into a unified, managed offering. Celona has taken this a step further with its new AerFlex technology that removes the requirement for a local core, streamlining deployment and lowering barriers for enterprises. Together, these strategic commitments validate the long‑term viability of P5G in complex enterprise edge environments.
Private 5G is not dying; it is maturing into a specialized, indispensable technology for industrial and mission‑critical environments where Wi‑Fi simply cannot deliver; such as ports, mines, logistics hubs, and advanced manufacturing floors that demand seamless mobility, deterministic latency, and massive device density. While carriers may continue to exert pressure to limit or eliminate the CBRS spectrum model, those efforts are unlikely to succeed given the embedded base of CBRS deployments already powering real‑world private networks across the U.S. This entrenched foundation, combined with the clear technical advantages of P5G in operational technology use cases, ensures that private cellular will remain a cornerstone of enterprise connectivity strategy, evolving toward simpler, more accessible delivery models rather than fading away.
